"There is a 40% chance that it evolves into a "super El Niño" with global impacts that will last into 2027, AccuWeather experts says."
"El Niño has developed in the Pacific Ocean, a climate pattern that can reshape weather around the globe into 2027. The last El Niño was in 2023-24, and forecasters say this one is developing earlier than many typically do.
"The sea surface temperatures are quickly changing in the equatorial Pacific," AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok explained. By early June, the water in this region had risen by at least 0.9 of a degree F, reaching a threshold associated with El Niño conditions.
“Most El Niños begin in the fall, so this is developing much earlier and faster than expected," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chad Merrill said. “The weather patterns here early in the summer are also lining up to what is expected with an El Niño.”
AccuWeather experts say there is a 40% chance it evolves into a "super El Nino." To reach that level, water near the equator in the eastern Pacific would need to climb to at least 3.6 degrees F above the long-term average. The stronger El Niño becomes, the greater its potential influence on weather patterns around the world."
Brian Lada reports for AccuWeather June 11, 2026.
SEE ALSO:
"El Niño Is Officially Here, Bringing Domino Weather Effects Across The Planet" (Washington Post)
"El Niño And The Iran War May Spark Hunger Crisis For More Than 100 Million" (Washington Post)
"El Nino Forms, Expected To Strengthen, Say NOAA Forecasters" (NOAA release)
