Forecast Models Now Call for This El Niño To Be the Strongest on Record

"As of this week, the average of the group of forecast models used to predict the intensity of El Niño are  calling for an event that would surpass the record-strong El Niño of 1997-1998.

El Nino, which is a measure of how abnormally warm the tropical Pacific Ocean is, can be classified as “very strong” if surface waters are running at least 2 degrees Celsius warmer than average for at least three months in a row. While this can be a difficult metric to achieve — it’s only happened twice before — it’s looking more like this year will not only jump that hurdle, but also surpass the old record.

Colorado State meteorologist Phil Klotzbach plotted the 1997-1998 El Niño on top of the most recent forecast, showing how the model average — in yellow below — is warmer than the previous record El Niño all the way through spring of next year. It’s close, and only slightly stronger — but it’s a big change compared to forecasts from recent months."

Angela Fritz reports for the Capital Weather Gang in the Washington Post August 21, 2015.