"Colorado State University’s hurricane forecasting team is expecting El Niño to bring a slightly below-average season with 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes."
"A slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane season is likely in 2026, the Colorado State University hurricane forecasting team said in its latest seasonal forecast, issued April 9.
Led by Phil Klotzbach, the Colorado team forecast 13 named storms, six hurricanes, two major hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE, of 90 (73% of average). That’s lower than the long-term averages for the period 1991-2020 of 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, 3.2 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 123. Last year, there were 13 named storms, five hurricanes, four major hurricanes, and an ACE of 133. The last Atlantic hurricane season with an ACE below the 90 units predicted for this year was the strong El Niño year of 2015, which had an ACE of 63.
The outlook predicted lower odds of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. than usual: 32% (long-term average: 43%). It gave a 15% chance of a major hurricane hitting the East Coast or Florida Peninsula (long-term average: 21%), and a 20% chance for the Gulf Coast (long-term average: 27%). The Caribbean was forecast to have a 35% chance of having at least one major hurricane pass through (long-term average: 47%).
The Colorado State University forecast uses a statistical model honed from more than 40 years of past Atlantic hurricane statistics, plus dynamical model output from four groups: ECMWF (the European model), UKMET (the U.K. Met Office), JMA (the Japan Meteorological Agency), and CMCC (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici)."
Jeff Masters reports for Yale Climate Connections April 9, 2026.
SEE ALSO:
"The Emerging Danger Of Post-Hurricane Heat Waves" (Yale Climate Connections)
